compared to 2022. As a result of these factors, the spreads between HDPE, LLDPE, LDPE and naphtha in 2023 were US$ 394, 364, and 392 per ton, weakening by US$ 24, 59, and 251 per ton from 2022, respectively. The polypropylene (PP) market faced continued pressure from various geopolitical conflicts, steadily rising inflation rates, and the economic recession, all of which led to crude oil price volatility. This was further compounded by China’s self-sufficiency policy, environmental problems, and climate change, causing PE prices in the region to see a significant decline, with the average PP Homo Injection CFR SEA price standing at approximately US$ 1,000 per ton. In addition, the price of the primary feedstock was driven up by rising crude oil and energy prices. Therefore, the average PP-naphtha spread in Q3/2023 slipped to around US$ 300 per ton in comparison to US$ 340 per ton in 2023 and US$ 400 per ton in 2022. The polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market in 2023 was adversely impacted by the economic slowdown, as was the demand for commodity goods and for PET products, which served as primary packaging. On the supply side, the market faced pressured from a series of added capacities from China totaling over 5 million tons per year following the easing of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the P2F spread decreased by US$ 86 per ton to US$ 88 per ton from 2022, while the average PET price was US$ 925 per ton, sliding by US$ 172 per ton compared to 2022. The polystyrene (PS) market in 2023 slumped further than in 2022. General purpose polystyrene (GPPS), used in food packaging, continued to see steady demand as consumers turned more towards take-home meals and food deliveries. However, demand for highimpact polystyrene (HIPS), used in electrical appliances and electronic devices, experienced a slowdown due to diminishing purchasing power among consumers. Overall, global PS demand slid by 0.3 million tons to 10.69 million tons, or a 2.5% decrease, while PS production capacity surged by 0.9 million tons to 16.6 million tons, or 5.4%. The spread between PS and styrene monomer, its feedstock, in 2023 was US$ 158 per ton, declining by US$ 87 per ton. The GPPS price per ton in 2023 stood at US$ 1,215 per ton, or a US$ 255 per ton decline, while the HIPS price lowered by US$ 255 per ton to US$ 1,311 per ton compared to 2022. Market Forecast for 2024 The overall polymer demand is expected to see a recovery, driven by economic stimulus packages by different countries, led by large economies like the U.S. and China. At the same time, the market will remain volatile and pressured by the global economic recession, geopolitical risk, and a continuous increase in new capacities. PE demand in 2023 is expected to increase by 3.5 million tons, or 3%, to 120.2 million tons, driven by the economic stimulus measures of different countries around the world. However, the economic recession and the monetary policies implemented by central banks around the world to manage inflation, as well as geopolitical uncertainties in Europe and the Middle East, will continue to exert pressure on the market. An additional 2.0 million tons of new production capacity is also expected from China, India, and the U.S. However, as the global economy is projected to rebound in the second half in half of 2024, the PE-naphtha spread will likely be driven up compared to 2023. As for PP, demand is expected to rebound in the latter half of 2024 due to better inflation control as well as economic stimulus packages issued by each country, which will cause the regional PP supply to slowly improve. As such the PP-naphtha spread will likely trend upward in the second half of 2024 compared to late 2023. Global PET demand is projected to grow by about 1 million tons to 28.6 million tons per year as it is used in the main packaging for commodity goods and the economy is expected to recover. However, as the demand is outstripped by the supply, the market will likely face continued pressure from new capacity in 2023, but will also have a more positive outlook as there will lower added capacity. As a result of these factors, a shift in the price and spread relative to 2023 is expected. Global PS demand is anticipated to rise by approximately 0.2 million tons to 10.88 million tons per year, while the output is expected to increase primarily due to China to about 1 million tons per year from 16.6 million tons in 2023. As the increased output continue to outstrip the demand, PS prices will be adversely 73 PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED Form 56-1 One Report 2023
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