the United States, to call for OPEC Plus to increase production more than the original agreement to reduce the dramatically rising of oil prices. However, OPEC remained its resolution to increase production at 400,000 barrels per day, so the United States and major oil users such as the United Kingdom, India, Japan, and South Korea released and consumed oil from strategic petroleum reserves or SPR. This pushed down crude oil prices. However, the shortage of energy, including coal, natural gas, and oil, coupled with the long winter forecast encouraged power plants and industrial plants to switch to use oil and fuel. As a result, crude oil prices tended to stabilize at a high level. The Dubai crude oil spot price in 2021 averaged US$ 69.2 per barrel. Petroleum prices and spreads in 2021 was increased mainly due to a recovery in demand after several countries eased lockdown measures as more people were vaccinated. The fastest-growing demand was gasoline because it was found that people in many countries were using personal cars 1.5-2.0 times more than what they had used during pre-COVID-19 pandemic. Old refineries closed down in many regions with a total production capacity of more than 1.9 million barrels per day. This was affected by the pandemic of COVID-19, including the adjustment of company’s strategy to focus more on green business. In addition, China’s petroleum product exports declined this year by about 40% compared to the previous year. Because China has the policy to control carbon dioxide emissions or the Dual Control Energy Policy. Therefore, the Chinese government has been trying to force inefficient refineries to reduce their refining capacity by reducing crude oil import quotas and refined oil export quotas. Each product detail is as follows. Gasoline (ULG 95) over Dubai crude oil spread in 2021 was US$ 11.0 per barrel, a US$ 6.6 per barrel increase from 2020. With a supporting factor from increasing private cars traveling. This was a result of the increasing number of people being vaccinated against COVID-19, as well as the fact that many countries has shifted their policies from trying to reduce the number of COVID-19 cases to zero to living with COVID-19 virus (Live with COVID-19), which target the number of people who have been vaccinated instead of the goal of having zero infections. Jet/kerosene over Dubai crude oil spread in 2021 was US$ 5.8 per barrel, a US$ 3.3 per barrel increase from 2020. With a supporting factor from the re-opening policies after people received more vaccinations. In some countries, there are still Travel Bubble measures specifically match countries that can control the spread of COVID-19 effectively to stimulate demand from tourism. Diesel 10 PPM over Dubai crude oil spread in 2021 was US$ 8.4 per barrel, a US$ 1.2 per barrel increase from 2020. As a result of demand recovery in Europe, to which a large amount of diesel is imported, and the closing of the refineries, with the capacity of over 1.9 million barrels per day, suffered from the COVID-19 pandemic, the supply was relatively tight. High-sulfur fuel oil over Dubai crude oil spread in 2021 was US$ -4.9 per barrel, a US$ 1.9 per barrel decrease from 2020. This spread was pressured by the new regulations of International Marine Organization (IMO), which were enforced in January 2020 and required a reduction of sulfur level from 3.5% to 0.5%, which drove demand for high-sulfur fuel oil down. However, with the supporting factor from most oil refineries to shift production to low-sulfur fuel oil. As a result, the supply of high-sulfur fuel oil declined, and demand from the power sector rose after LNG prices increased more than three times in the fourth quarter. Low-sulfur fuel oil over Dubai crude oil spread in 2021 was US$ 12.6 per barrel, an increase of US$ 1.4 per barrel relative to 2020. With an enabling factor from the demand in the ocean shipping sector. After international air transport was closed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, LNG prices rose at the end of the year. As a result, demand for low-sulfur fuel oil for power generation in North Asia also increased. However, China cut imports by about 30-40% from the previous year as the government encouraged domestic refineries to be VAT exempted to stimulate the refineries to produce more low-sulfur fuel oil to be sold at a new port in Zhoushan, which China wanted it to be the new maritime fuel service center in North Asia. FORECAST FOR THE PETROLEUM MARKET IN 2022 Crude oil situation in 2022, although there is still pressure from the crude oil production forecast. Crude oil major producers tend to increase their production continuously. The OPEC Plus group will continue to increase production until September 2022. Crude oil production by other major producers such as the United States is expected to increase continuously to an average of 12 million barrels per day, including 60 PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED Form 56-1 One Report 2021
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